To begin with, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which was a week full of speeches by senior Central Bankers globally. Forex trends were influenced by the ECB head Mario Draghi, as well as his colleagues from the Bank of England Mark Carney and Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. It goes without saying that the week would not be complete without the statements of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen.
– EUR / USD. The past week clearly showed that the opinion of the majority is not necessarily correct. Recall that, even though about 90% indicators on H4 voted for the growth of the pair, this forecast was supported by only about 10% of analysts. In their opinion, the pair had to first rise to the resistance at 1.1285, and then even higher to 1.1400. This is what happened - the pair was firmly entrenched in the zone 1.1390-1.1445 by the end of the five-day period...
First, a review of last week’s forecast: the holiday season is approaching, which may be the cause of the diminishing stream of significant economic events. This necessarily affects the volatility of the major currency pairs, which have come close to the targets indicated by analysts, without having successfully overcome them.
– Thus, last week, the maximum range of the EUR/USD fluctuations hardly exceeded 90 points. Recall that 75% of our experts had assumed that the pair should descend to the support at 1.1100. Allowing for the standard backlash, that was what happened: the week's low was fixed at 1.1118. However, the bears' strength then dried up, and the bulls returned the pair to the same place from where it had started the five-day period...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– It had been clear that the main moves for EUR/USD would begin on Wednesday 14 June, when the US Federal Reserve would officially announce a rate increase. Everyone was ready for this. What no one was expecting though was the sharp drop of the dollar 5.5 hours before this event. Taking advantage of negative data on the US consumer market, large speculators pulled the pair up by 100 points. As a result, the Fed's statement could only return it to the original value of 1.1200. However, the "bears" did not calm down there, and on Friday the pair reached the local bottom at 1.1130, after which it again returned to where it started the week: namely in the 1.1200 zone...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Let us recall that in the forecasts regarding EUR/USD, most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, spoke about the possible decline of the pair to 1.1100. The forecast proved correct, with the pair having lost about 120 points in the course of the week. However, it ended up being 65 points short of the named target, having only managed to reach 1.1165 before turning and arriving at 1.1195...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The previous forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be quite accurate when it came to trends, but the pair’s volatility turned out to be more modest than expected. Recall that 60% of experts predicted the pair’s decline to 1.1075; the pair did indeed start its descent on Monday but turned northwards when it was still 30 points away from target. This turn of events had been supported by 40% of analysts, who had expected that against the background of negative data for the dollar stemming from the NFP (survey of employment in the US outside the agricultural sector), the pair would soar to 1.1400 by the end of the week. The forecast came true only partially: the pair did go up, but ended the five-day period at 1.1280, without having reached 1.1300...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– As we wrote last time, whilst experts and technical analysis make predictions, it is politicians that make reality. The President of the United States Donald Trump spent the past week in Europe, causing the scandals associated with him to temporarily quiet down. This led to a lull in the financial markets, which neither the OPEC meeting on Thursday 25 May or, notably, the G7 leadership meeting could shake. EUR/USD spent the whole week in the 1.1160-1.1267 side corridor, as if waiting for new events, and finished the five-day period practically in the same place where it started: at 1.1185...
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But first, a few words about what happened last week:
Experts and technical analysis make predictions. Politicians shape reality and last week made this very clear. The last few days "presented" the world with several scandals related to US President Donald Trump. This was the firing of the FBI Director James Comey, the related controversy around the possible transfer of confidential information by Trump to the Russian diplomats, and subsequent rumours of Trump’s possible impeachment ...
All this resulted in a sharp weakening of the dollar and the fall of the US stock market. Suffice to say that, according to Bloomberg, over the past few days, businessmen from the 500 world richest people list became poorer by $ 35 billion.
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Recall that the experts' forecasts regarding the behaviour of EUR/USD in the short and medium term were fully opposed. Thus, in the first case, most of them favoured the growth of the pair, whilst in the second they favoured its fall. And, as it often happens, the medium-term forecast turned out to be the most accurate: until Thursday, the pair moved in a downtrend, losing more than 180 points over this period. However, on Friday, data on retail sales in the US was released, which played into the hands of bulls: instead of the expected 0.6%, consumer spending growth was only 0.4%: as a result, the pair drastically launched northwards and froze near the strong medium-term resistance line at 1.0932...
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First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Recall that the experts’ opinions on EUR/USD a week ago were divided almost equally: 35% supported the growth of the pair, 30% voted for its fall and 35% foresaw a sideways trend. At the same time, more than 80% of indicators were oriented to the north: they turned out to be right. The ECB President Mario Draghi' s speech, coupled with optimism about the second round of elections in France, provided the euro with such strong support that this pair chose to ignore even very positive data on the US labour market published on Friday 5 May. Thus, the pair finished the week session near 1.1000, having risen by about 100 points in five days...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– When giving the forecast for EUR/USD, 35% of experts and indicators on D1 insisted that it should return to the highs of February and March 2017. This is what happened in response to the first round of the French presidential elections. Having established an impressive gap at the opening of the weekly session, the pair rose to 1.0900, where it spent the whole week, turning this level into a Power Point...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– In the opinion of almost half of the experts (40%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, the pair EUR/USD, which has been moving in the medium-term rising channel that began in December 2016, had been expected to rise to 1.0690, and then by yet another 130 points. It turned out that the pair indeed immediately went northwards, starting from Monday; on Tuesday, it broke through the resistance at 1.0690 and, having turned it into a support level, the pair reached 1.0780. After this, the bulls’ energy dried up, and the pair returned to the 1.0690 zone by the end of the week’s session...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Seeing that EUR/USD had been oversold, both analysts and technical analysis expected it to bounce up, which is what happened. However, the bullish force in this case was only powerful enough to lift the pair to 1.0690 (as opposed to the expected 1.0750), after which the pair fell to the support area near 1.0610...
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been fulfilled if not by 100, then by 90 percent for all four pairs:
– Regarding the forecast for EUR/USD, it proved to be 100% accurate. Recall that over 80% of experts voted for the downward trend for this pair, indicating the 1.0600 support as a target. This was reached by the end of the week. However, we had also voiced some negative sentiment concerning the dollar in connection with the fall in US employment numbers (NFP). This also materialised, but the bullish force in this case was only enough to lift the pair to 1.0666. A minute later, it returned to the general trend and continued to fall...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The forecast for EUR/USD proved to be 100% accurate. Recall that the main scenario we laid out was the following: the pair’s continued growth was seen to be entirely possible albeit negligible in magnitude. Once it reached the 1.0850-1.0900 area, it would U-turn to southwards. We named 1.0650 as the nearest support. Everything occurred exactly as described: reaching the height of 1.0905 as early as Monday, the pair turned sharply and flying with a little breather 255 points, finished the week at the mark specified by experts - 1.0650...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Speaking of the EUR/USD last week, analysts were not able to give a clear forecast. Indeed, the pair behaved quite sluggishly, and neither the meeting of the ECB, nor the speech of the Head of the Fed, nor even the Trump administration’s landmark vote in the US Congress on the healthcare reform and repeal of Obamacare, could make it more dynamic. The pair's volatility kept within 100 points. As it turned out, the most accurate forecast was given by graphic analysis, denoting a strong support at the 1.0700 horizon (in reality, the pair dropped to 1.0720) and the 1.0850 resistance (in reality, there followed a rise to 1.0824)...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The first part of the forecast for EUR/USD talked about the fall of the pair to 1.0600, which ended up happening by Tuesday evening. The fate of its future, as had been expected, was determined by the plethora of news from the USA on March 15. The Fed's decision on the interest rate, J. Yellen's press conference, and President D. Trump’s speech deployed the pair northward, as a result of which it approached December 2016-January 2017 highs in the 1.0775-1.0830 zone...
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First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Even though the ECB decided to leave the interest rate unaltered and the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector in the United States remained virtually unchanged (235K vs. 238K), the bulls still managed to push EUR/USD to the goal that had been set by a quarter of analysts and graphical analysis on H4. Recall that 1.0680 was named as a target. The pair reached it just 3 hours before the end of the week’s session, and then finished the five-day period at the level of 1.0675...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– EUR/USD. Many top traders have complained, with these complaints even being audible in the media, that there is a distinct lack of clear trends for this pair. They are right: it has been impossible to identify a winner in the perennial bull-bear struggle for two continuous weeks so far. The moment it seems the former will start dominating, the pair rises to 1.0630, the situation changes and the euro weakens, dropping the pair to the support level at 1.0500. Because of this uncompleted struggle, the pair finished the week in almost the same place where it started back on February 20: at 1.0622...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Recall that, when giving the medium-term forecast more than 70% of analysts voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of EUR/USD. They were actively supported by trend indicators and oscillators on D1. As for the weekly forecast, according to graphical analysis, the pair was expected to once again test the minimum at the level of 1.0500, and then turn around and start a sharp ascent. Those traders who made use of these findings were able to get a good profit. Exactly by the middle of the week the pair found the local bottom at 1.0493, which was followed by its northwards rebound. However, the pair did not reach the expected horizon of 1.0850, but those 125 points, for which it went up, managed to deliver the bulls a significant profit...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Recall that when predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of analysts, supported by indicators, voted in favour of the continuation of the downtrend and the decline of the pair to the 1.0500 zone. That was what happened: for the entire first half of the week the pair moved southwards, reaching the horizon of 1.0520. Then, helped by the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, whose speech was called boring by some, the pair reversed and rose by 150 points. Then the bulls' strength was exhausted, and, having lost 70 points, the pair finished the week almost where it started: in the vicinity of a strong medium-term support / resistance level in the 1.0610 area...
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which proved almost 100% accurate:
– As it often happens, the medium-term forecast jumps ahead of the short-term one. Thus, in the case of EUR/USD, we saw the breakdown of the January uptrend’ lower boundary somewhat earlier than the experts had expected. However, the bears’ victory was predicted by experts with absolute precision - traders who had opened positions to sell received serious profits, as the pair lost almost 200 points during the week and designated a local bottom at 1.0607, the area of a very strong support / resistance level, which existed since November 2016...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Despite the fact that the past week was filled with important economic events, it failed to deliver any big surprises. The uptrend of the pair EUR/USD, the start of which was precisely on New Year's night 2017 (clearly visible on D1) was continued. Most experts expected the pair to decline to the rising channel's lower border in the area of 1.0600 and possibly to break through it. However, having descended to 1.0620, the pair could not penetrate the support and went up, ending the week where analysis on H4 predicted: precisely at the intersection of the centre line of the ascending channel and the strong resistance level of 1.0780...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The majority of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 had expected the EUR/USD pair to decline to the 1.0500 level and then to return to its Pivot Point at 1.0650. However, the pair stayed within a narrow side corridor 1.0710-1.0775 for almost the entire week and it was only on Thursday that it went down. At the same time the decline was quite small and, having found a local bottom in the Pivot Point area 1.0657, the pair turned around and went back to where it started the week, to the level of 1.0695...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The main forecast for the EUR/USD pair had said that early in the week the pair could rise to 1.0685 or even higher to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. This is what happened in reality. By just Tuesday, the pair reached the 1.0720 level, before returning 130 points downwards and jumping back up again, finishing the week near the 1.0700 mark...
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– The behaviour of the EUR/USD pair did not deliver any surprises in the first half of the week. First, as predicted by graphical analysis, it attempted to climb to the height of 1.0650. Having almost reached the intended target (1.0627), the pair reversed and, following the forecast of most analysts, it began to descend to the 1.0350-1.0525 zone. The trend was then altered by the ECB meeting, the press conference by Donald Trump, and the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England M. Carney. Those events led the pair to return to the level of 1.0625 and then rise another 50 points to the height of 1.0685, once it had kicked off from the level of 1.0453...
2016 has been marked by a number of events that strongly affected financial markets. First and foremost is, of course, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as US President, as well as persistent rumours of a possible disintegration of the European Union, which have seriously changed the balance of forces in the struggle of major world currencies.
So what should be expected from the pound, dollar, euro and yen in the new 2017?
First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– Recall that in the first week of the New Year analysts demonstrated a unique consensus: 100% believed that the EUR/USD would fall to the 1.0350-1.04800 area. They turned out to be 100% correct. On Monday the pair crept up to the level of 1.0480, and on Tuesday, having mobilized all their forces, the bears blitzed to the south and literally dropped the pair to the 1.3400 mark. However, this task proved to be exhausting and the bulls were able to not only win back the lost positions, but also return the pair to the Pivot Point of the last eight weeks of 2016 in the 1.0525 area...
