The past week was dominated by a dramatic escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, reversing the cautious optimism that had briefly lifted markets the previous Friday. The US-Iran ceasefire - while extended indefinitely - yielded no diplomatic breakthrough: the US Navy boarded an Iranian supertanker in the Indian Ocean, President Trump ordered forces to target mine-laying vessels in the strait, and Tehran signalled no willingness to negotiate while the naval blockade of its ports remained in place. These developments drove Brent crude surging approximately 14% over the week, reigniting inflation fears and applying sustained pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. The US dollar strengthened on safe-haven flows, weighing on the euro and precious metals alike.
Markets ended the week on a more hopeful note, however. On Friday afternoon, it was confirmed that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would travel to Pakistan on Saturday for direct talks with Iranian counterparts, and Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi announced he would visit Islamabad and Muscat. Markets responded with visible relief: oil pulled back from intraday highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs on Friday, and EUR/USD recovered to close above 1.1720. Bitcoin and other risk assets also stabilised. Whether this diplomatic momentum translates into a concrete Hormuz resolution will be the defining question as the new trading week opens.
The coming week is exceptionally event-heavy and may prove pivotal for all major asset classes. Key events include: the FOMC rate decision (April 28-29), with rates universally expected to be held at 3.50-3.75% - focus will be entirely on Powell's language on inflation and the rate-cut path; US Q1 GDP (April 30); the ECB monetary policy meeting (April 30); Eurozone CPI and GDP flash estimates; and US Non-Farm Payrolls (May 1). The outcome of the US-Iran direct talks in Pakistan will set the tone for oil, inflation expectations, and overall risk appetite as Monday's session opens.
Closing prices as of Friday, April 24, 2026:
EUR/USD - 1.1722 | Brent Crude Oil - $105.33 | Gold (XAU/USD, Futures) - $4,740.90 | Silver (XAG/USD, Futures) - $76.414 | Bitcoin - $77,546 | Ethereum - $2,317.46
EUR/USD
EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1722, down from the previous Friday's close of 1.1764 - a weekly decline of approximately 0.4%. The pair experienced significant intraweek volatility: it slid to a two-week low of 1.1670 mid-week as the Strait of Hormuz escalation fuelled USD safe-haven demand, before recovering sharply on Friday afternoon following news of direct US-Iran talks scheduled in Pakistan. The pair finished the day up 0.33% and comfortably above 1.1700.
The macro backdrop for the euro remains challenging. The German Ifo Business Climate index plunged in April to 84.4 from 86.3 in March - its lowest since the pandemic - as energy costs from the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment. The Eurozone Composite PMI printed at 50.7, narrowly avoiding contraction, with services at 50.2 and manufacturing recovering to 51.6. Germany's Economics Ministry halved its 2026 growth forecast, blaming the energy shock from the conflict. US services PMI slipped to 49.8, though manufacturing held at 52.3, suggesting neither economy is in strong shape - a relatively balanced backdrop for EUR/USD direction.
For the week of April 27-May 1, three events will dominate EUR/USD price action. The FOMC decision on April 29 is the highest-impact event: if Powell signals that oil-driven inflation is pushing rate cuts materially further out, the dollar is likely to strengthen and EUR/USD could test the 1.1630-1.1600 support zone. If Powell keeps 2026 cuts on the table and describes energy inflation as temporary, the euro could recover. The ECB meeting on April 30 is expected to produce a hold with a cautious tone - unlikely to provide the euro with a meaningful uplift. Geopolitical news remains the wildcard: a credible Hormuz diplomatic breakthrough would reduce oil, ease USD safe-haven demand, and could push EUR/USD back toward 1.1800 and beyond.
Resistance is at 1.1764, 1.1800, and 1.1849 (the recent yearly high). Support is located at 1.1680, 1.1630, and 1.1600.
Baseline view: Neutral-to-bearish while below 1.1764. A dovish FOMC tone or meaningful Hormuz diplomatic progress are the two catalysts capable of reversing the pair's recent weakness and pushing it back above 1.1800. Without either, the combination of USD safe-haven demand, delayed Fed cuts, and weak Eurozone data keeps the path of least resistance pointed lower.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude was the week's most dramatic mover, surging approximately 14% to close at $105.33 per barrel. The rally was entirely geopolitically driven: the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, Trump's order to "shoot and kill" mine-laying vessels, and the US Navy's seizure of an Iranian supertanker all contributed to an extreme tightening of global supply flows. The EIA confirmed that Dated Brent spot prices have surged to a premium of more than $25 per barrel over front-month futures - an exceptional level of backwardation reflecting acute near-term market tightness since the strait's closure. Friday's session saw Brent touch $106 intraday before pulling back to $105.33 as peace-talk optimism provided some relief.
The critical variable for the week ahead is the outcome of the US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad on Saturday April 25-26. If these talks yield a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz or a meaningful ceasefire upgrade, Brent could shed $10-$15 per barrel rapidly as the geopolitical risk premium is priced out - potentially retesting the $90-$95 area. On the other hand, if talks collapse and Iran maintains or tightens its hold on the strait, $110 becomes the next realistic target. The FOMC meeting and US Q1 GDP (April 30) will also influence oil through their impact on the dollar and demand projections. Non-Farm Payrolls on May 1 round out the week.
Resistance is at $107.00, $110.00, and $112.50. Support is at $103.00, $100.00, and $97.00.
Baseline view: Bullish above $103.00, driven by geopolitical supply risk. However, the risk profile is asymmetric: a diplomatic breakthrough is the single most powerful near-term bearish catalyst, and it is now closer than at any point since the conflict began. Traders should be prepared for violent moves in either direction early in the week depending on the Islamabad talks outcome.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold futures closed the week at $4,740.90 (Investing.com), recovering from weekly lows near $4,658 touched on Friday morning to end the day up 0.36%, aided by diplomatic optimism. Despite Friday's partial recovery, gold recorded a weekly decline of approximately 3.2% from the previous close of $4,879. The metal is navigating a paradoxical environment: the very geopolitical shock that would normally support gold is simultaneously driving oil prices higher, fuelling inflation expectations, strengthening the dollar, and reinforcing the prospect of the Fed keeping rates elevated for longer - all significant headwinds for non-yielding bullion. Gold has declined roughly 10% since the onset of the Middle East conflict, even as equity markets have been broadly resilient.
The week ahead presents two potential directional scenarios for gold. In the bearish scenario: a hawkish FOMC (signalling that energy-driven inflation is delaying rate cuts) presses gold back toward the $4,680-$4,640 support zone, and failed diplomatic talks keep oil elevated and inflation fears alive. In the bullish scenario: a Hormuz breakthrough reduces oil prices and eases inflation concerns, while a dovish FOMC keeps the rate-cut cycle on track - gold could recover toward $4,840-$4,912. US Q1 GDP on April 30 is also important: a weaker-than-expected reading would revive rate-cut expectations and provide gold with a tailwind. The longer-term institutional consensus remains firmly constructive: Goldman Sachs targets $5,400 and JPMorgan $6,300 for year-end, with even the revised Morgan Stanley forecast at $5,200 well above current levels.
Resistance is at $4,780, $4,840, and $4,912. Support is at $4,680, $4,640, and $4,580.
Baseline view: Neutral. Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between geopolitical uncertainty (bullish) and oil-driven inflation pushing rate expectations higher (bearish). The $4,700-$4,780 range is the immediate battleground. A clear break and close above $4,780 would signal recovery momentum; a breach below $4,640 would suggest further corrective downside toward $4,580.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver futures closed the week at $76.414 (Investing.com), recovering strongly from intraday lows of $73.95 hit Friday morning before the diplomatic news triggered a sharp relief bounce (+1.21% on the day). Despite this recovery, silver posted a weekly decline of approximately 6.6% from the previous close of $81.84 - significantly underperforming gold and registering its first weekly loss in five weeks. Silver faced a double headwind: as a non-yielding asset it was pressured by elevated interest rate expectations driven by oil-induced inflation; and as an industrial metal, it is vulnerable to recession fears generated by high energy prices, with implications for electronics, solar energy, and broader manufacturing demand.
Technically, XAG/USD broke below the upward-trending channel from late March lows, and a bearish impulsive candle on Thursday confirmed seller control. Both the 50-day SMA (~$78) and 100-day SMA (~$79) now represent significant overhead resistance. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April's rally near $74.60 provided some interim support, though the intraday low of $73.95 represents a more immediate floor that was tested and held. A break below $73.95 would open the path toward $72.60 (April lows) and the $72.00 area. For the week ahead, silver's direction will be closely tied to oil prices and the diplomatic backdrop. A Hormuz breakthrough that reduces oil prices and eases inflation fears would be the most powerful bullish catalyst for silver.
Resistance is at $77.00, $78.00 (50-day SMA), and $79.00 (100-day SMA). Support is at $74.60 (38.2% Fib), $73.95 (recent intraday low), and $72.60.
Baseline view: Bearish while below $77.00. The near-term technical structure and macro environment both favour further downside unless oil reverses sharply on diplomatic progress or the FOMC surprises with a dovish hold. A weekly close below $74.60 would confirm bearish momentum and open the next leg lower.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed the week at $77,546 (Investing.com), a gain of less than 1% from the previous week's close near $77,127 - a remarkably stable outcome given the high macro and geopolitical volatility of the week. The week's defining institutional event was Strategy's announcement of a $2.54 billion Bitcoin purchase (34,164 BTC), its largest buy since 2024, bringing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC. This was accompanied by $1.4 billion in total weekly inflows to global crypto funds - the strongest week since mid-January - with Bitcoin attracting $1.12 billion. A Nomura survey confirmed that 65% of Japanese institutional investors now hold Bitcoin for portfolio diversification. Bitcoin also crossed above the realized price of short-term holders (~$69,400), a key on-chain metric that historically reduces cascade liquidation risk.
Despite these institutional tailwinds, Bitcoin continued to struggle to achieve a sustained breakout above $78,000-$80,000 - the fourth consecutive failure at this zone in two months. Derivatives data showed that each push higher was driven primarily by short-covering (negative funding rates for an extended period) rather than genuine new demand. Open interest fell over 6% in 24 hours on Friday, pointing to leverage unwinding as prices stalled. For the week ahead, the FOMC tone on April 29 is the primary macro catalyst. A hawkish surprise could push Bitcoin back toward the $75,000-$74,500 support zone; a dovish signal could re-energise the rally attempt toward $80,000. The US-Iran talk outcomes will also influence overall risk sentiment from the Monday open.
Resistance is at $78,500, $80,000 (key psychological level), and $82,000. Support is at $75,800, $74,500, and $73,000.
Baseline view: Mildly bullish above $75,800, supported by strong institutional accumulation narratives and improving on-chain metrics. However, a sustained weekly close above $80,000 is required to shift structural momentum decisively to the upside. Until then, the range of $74,500-$78,500 continues to define the market. FOMC tone and the Hormuz diplomatic outcome are the primary swing factors.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed the week at $2,317.46 (Investing.com), a decline of approximately 4.2% from the previous week's close of $2,420. ETH was pulled lower by capital rotating from altcoins into Bitcoin during risk-off episodes, a technical rejection at the key $2,400 resistance zone, and the $8.6 billion BTC/ETH options expiry on Friday that added intraday volatility. Despite these headwinds, positive institutional signals provided underlying support: BitMine Immersion Technologies staked $142 million in ETH to lock up supply, BlackRock purchased $53.6 million in spot ETH ETF shares, and total weekly spot ETH ETF inflows reached $328 million. The ETH price is currently near its 50-day EMA (~$2,320) and just above its 200-day MA (~$2,310), making the current level a critical technical pivot zone.
For the week ahead, Ethereum's direction will be driven primarily by the same macro catalysts as Bitcoin - FOMC tone and geopolitical developments - but with higher beta in both directions. A risk-on environment (dovish Fed + Hormuz breakthrough) would benefit ETH more than BTC in percentage terms. However, ETH has been persistently underperforming Bitcoin in the current cycle, with the ETH/BTC ratio drifting lower, a trend that may persist unless Ethereum-specific catalysts accelerate. A weekly close above $2,380 would represent the first significant sign of momentum recovery. Failure to hold the $2,260 support level would expose the $2,200 zone and potentially $2,100.
Resistance is at $2,380, $2,420 (previous weekly close), and $2,465. Support is at $2,260, $2,200, and $2,100.
Baseline view: Neutral with a slight bearish tilt while below $2,380. ETH's path is largely dictated by broader market sentiment and Bitcoin's direction. The convergence of key moving averages near current price levels makes this a decisive zone. Strong and consistent spot ETF inflows are a structural positive, but the macro environment must improve for ETH to break convincingly higher.
Conclusion
The week of April 27 - May 1, 2026 may be the most consequential of the year to date for global financial markets. The FOMC decision (April 29), US Q1 GDP (April 30), the ECB meeting (April 30), and Non-Farm Payrolls (May 1) provide an unprecedented concentration of macro catalysts. Overarching all of them is the geopolitical variable: the outcome of the US-Iran direct talks in Islamabad over the weekend of April 25-26 will define the energy price, inflation, and risk sentiment backdrop within which all of next week's data will be interpreted.
EUR/USD is under moderate bearish pressure but retains meaningful upside potential if diplomacy delivers. Brent crude is sitting at the highest weekly close in over a year, driven by geopolitical supply risk, but faces equally powerful downside if the strait reopens. Gold is navigating a unique paradox where its traditional drivers pull in opposite directions. Silver is the most technically vulnerable instrument in this report. Bitcoin consolidates near multi-month highs with solid institutional support but requires a $80,000 breakout to confirm the next leg. Ethereum closely tracks Bitcoin with additional sensitivity to risk appetite and ETF flows.
Across all instruments, the central message is clear: the next major directional move will be determined not by technical patterns alone, but by whether diplomacy - or its decisive absence - reshapes the global energy picture in the days immediately ahead.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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