The week of June 29 – July 3 turned on one number: June US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at just 57,000 against a ~110K consensus, with prior months revised down 74,000 – the weakest payroll quarter in over a year. Unemployment slipped to 4.2% as workers left the labor force. Fed-hike odds for September fell from ~65–67% to near 50%, and the dollar posted its steepest weekly drop since April. Gold and silver rebounded sharply off multi-month lows, Bitcoin reclaimed $60,000 as ETF outflows reversed, and Brent extended its slide to five-month lows as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalized – though talks were paused Friday, July 4 for the funeral of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Closing prices, Friday, July 3, 2026 (investing.com):
EUR/USD – 1.1437 | Brent Crude – $72.12 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,187.30 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $63.06 | Bitcoin – $62,150 | Ethereum – $1,746
Key calendar, July 6–10: Monday – markets reopen after the US holiday; light liquidity persists amid Iran's mourning period. Tuesday – Eurozone Retail Sales; US Consumer Credit. Wednesday – FOMC Meeting Minutes (first under Chair Kevin Warsh), the week's key event; German Industrial Production. Thursday – US Initial Jobless Claims; EIA Crude Inventories. Friday – US PPI; light data, with US–Iran/Hormuz developments the main unscheduled catalyst.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1437 (prev. week 1.1384; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily rating: Neutral/Buy). The pair rallied off Wednesday's low near 1.1371 as the dollar sold off broadly on the weak NFP print. Gains were capped by soft Eurozone data: June headline inflation slowed to 2.8%, core to 2.4%, both below forecast, and ECB President Lagarde struck a dovish tone at Sintra, reducing bets on a third ECB hike (markets still favor a second).
Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the key driver – the first detailed look at Chair Warsh's committee under his leadership. A dovish tone favors a push toward 1.1470–1.1550; hawkish pushback could pull the pair back to 1.1325–1.1380.
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1550, 1.1650 │ Support: 1.1370, 1.1325 (52-week low), 1.1280
Baseline view: cautiously bullish after the dollar's post-NFP reversal, capped by ECB dovishness. Base case: 1.1325–1.1550.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $72.12 (prev. week $72.60; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily/weekly signal: Strong Sell, monthly: Neutral). Brent touched a fresh five-month low near $70.57 intraday as UAE exports returned to pre-war levels and total Hormuz flows pushed past 10 million barrels per day, before firming into the weekend. Progress in indirect US–Iran talks in Doha added to the bearish tone, though the process is paused for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei; Tehran continues to insist on retaining maritime control of the strait.
With talks paused, the near-term bias stays bearish on continued supply normalization; a smooth resumption would reinforce a move toward $68–70, while any flare-up around Iran's succession could spark a rally to $75–78.
Resistance: $73.50, $75.00, $78.00 │ Support: $70.00, $68.50, $65.00
Baseline view: bearish on continued Hormuz normalization, with two-sided geopolitical risk. Base case: $68–$75.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,187.30 (prev. week $4,096.30; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily: Buy, weekly: Neutral, monthly: Buy). Gold snapped four straight weekly declines, rallying over 2% as the weak NFP report slashed September hike odds to near 50%, while the dollar posted its steepest weekly drop since April. Central banks added a net 41 tonnes to reserves in May per World Gold Council data.
Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the key catalyst: a cautious, data-dependent Fed supports a push toward $4,250–$4,350; a hawkish surprise risks a pullback to $4,000–$4,060.
Resistance: $4,250, $4,350, $4,450 │ Support: $4,060, $4,000, $3,960
Baseline view: cautiously bullish as the Fed-hike narrative cools. Base case: $4,000–$4,350.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $63.06 (prev. week $59.22; 52-week range $35.28–$121.67; daily: Buy, monthly: Buy). Silver rebounded roughly 6% on the week, its sharpest weekly gain in over a month, recovering from seven-month lows as the softer dollar and reduced hike odds drove flows back into precious metals. The gold/silver ratio narrowed toward 66 from about 69 the prior week.
Wednesday's minutes remain the dominant catalyst. A confirmed dovish shift could extend the recovery toward $66–68; renewed dollar strength risks a retreat to $57–59.
Resistance: $65.00, $68.00, $70.00 │ Support: $59.00, $57.00, $55.00
Baseline view: cautiously bullish after a strong reversal, though the broader chart structure remains fragile. Base case: $57–$68.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $62,150 (prev. week $59,890; 52-week range ~$57,700–$126,200, a new low set this week; daily: Neutral/Buy). Bitcoin briefly touched a fresh cycle low near $57,700–58,100 before reclaiming $60,000 and then $62,000, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a ten-day, roughly $2.7 billion outflow streak with $221.7 million of net inflows on July 2 (Fidelity's FBTC and ARK/21Shares' ARKB leading). June was still the worst month for spot Bitcoin ETFs since their 2024 launch, at $4.0–4.5 billion in outflows, pushing 2026 cumulative flows negative for the first time. On-chain data show whales accumulating over 270,000 BTC in two weeks; the Fear & Greed Index has climbed off its extreme-fear low of 11 but remains depressed.
Analysts flag $62,800 and $65,000 as the levels to reclaim for a more durable rally; failure to hold $60,000 reopens $57,700 and $55,000. The stalled CLARITY Act remains the key crypto-specific swing factor, with an end-of-July deadline in view.
Resistance: $62,800, $65,000, $68,000 │ Support: $60,000, $57,700 (recent low), $55,000
Baseline view: cautiously bullish after a sharp reversal off a fresh cycle low, contingent on ETF flows staying positive. Base case: $57,700–$65,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $1,746 (prev. week $1,555; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Buy). ETH staged the sharpest rebound among the majors, gaining over 12% after briefly testing multi-year lows near $1,507–1,547. The bounce tracked Bitcoin's ETF-driven recovery, even as the Ethereum Foundation's restructuring (a 20% staff cut, 40% budget reduction) and earlier ETF outflows underscored lingering headwinds.
A weekly close above $1,700 suggests the recovery has legs, with $1,850–1,900 the next test; a reversal below $1,600 reopens the $1,500–1,388 zone. The CLARITY Act remains ETH's most asymmetric catalyst.
Resistance: $1,850, $1,900, $2,000 │ Support: $1,600, $1,500, $1,388 (52-week low)
Baseline view: cautiously bullish after a sharp short-covering rally, though the medium-term downtrend is not yet confirmed broken. Base case: $1,500–$1,900.
Conclusion
The week opens with markets digesting the weak US payrolls report; Wednesday's FOMC Meeting Minutes – the first detailed readout from Chair Kevin Warsh's committee – is the central catalyst for currencies and metals. EUR/USD at 1.1437: a dovish reading favors 1.1470–1.1550. Brent at $72.12: Hormuz normalization keeps the bias bearish toward $68–70, with Iran's post-Khamenei transition a wildcard. Gold at $4,187.30: base case $4,000–$4,350. Silver at $63.06: base case $57–$68. Bitcoin at $62,150: having reclaimed $60,000 on returning ETF inflows, $62,800 and $65,000 are the levels to watch. Ethereum at $1,746: a weekly close above $1,700 would confirm the recovery has legs.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
Bumalik Bumalik
