The final sessions of 2025 and the first days of 2026 usually bring thinner liquidity, which can widen intraday ranges in FX, commodities and crypto. Price moves may look sharper than usual, especially around key US releases and month-end positioning.
By the close of trading on Friday, 26 December, EUR/USD finished at 1.1772, Brent crude oil at 60.64 dollars per barrel, bitcoin near 87,358, while gold (XAU/USD) closed at 4,532.63.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1772, holding near recent highs but with momentum cooling into year-end conditions. Thin liquidity may exaggerate swings, so breakouts should be treated with caution unless confirmed by follow-through.
A test of resistance near 1.1820-1.1900 is possible. From this zone, a pullback may develop toward 1.1760-1.1720, with a deeper correction extending to 1.1680-1.1620.
A confident break and consolidation above 1.1900-1.2000 would open the way toward 1.2050-1.2150. A breakdown below 1.1620-1.1580 would increase bearish pressure and confirm a stronger correction.
Baseline view: neutral to moderately bullish while EUR/USD remains above 1.1680-1.1620.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed Friday near 87,358, staying inside a volatile consolidation range. Into the New Year, liquidity remains the key driver, so abrupt spikes are possible even without major headlines.
A rebound attempt toward 89,500-92,000 is possible. From there, a renewed decline may develop with targets near 88,000-86,000, then 85,000-83,000.
A breakout above 95,000-100,000 would cancel the bearish scenario and signal renewed upside.
Baseline view: neutral to slightly bearish while BTC/USD remains below 92,000-95,000.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent ended the week at 60.64. The market remains sensitive to demand expectations and headline risk, while year-end trading may make moves more abrupt than usual.
A corrective bounce toward 61.5-63.0 may develop. From this area, a decline back to 60.0-59.0 is possible. A breakdown below 57.5 would confirm a stronger bearish trend with potential targets in the mid-50s.
A rally and consolidation above 65.0-66.0 would cancel the bearish scenario and support a recovery toward the upper 60s.
Baseline view: neutral to mildly bearish while Brent remains below 63.0-65.0.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed at 4,532.63, maintaining a strong uptrend. With thinner liquidity, pullbacks may be fast, but demand could remain firm unless key supports fail.
A short-term correction toward 4,520-4,470 is possible, followed by an attempt to resume growth toward 4,580-4,650. A breakout above this zone would open the way toward 4,700.
A decline and consolidation below 4,420-4,360 would cancel the bullish scenario and signal a deeper correction risk.
Baseline view: buy on dips while gold remains above 4,420-4,360.
Conclusion
The week of 29 December - 02 January is likely to remain driven by liquidity effects and positioning, with the first meaningful catalysts of 2026 arriving as macro data flow normalises. EUR/USD may stay constructive but choppy, bitcoin remains range-bound with elevated volatility, Brent looks corrective unless it reclaims higher resistance, and gold continues to lead as long as key supports hold.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
