General Outlook
Markets head into the week still digesting President Trump’s tariff threats and a sharp repricing in safe havens and risk assets. Gold set a new record near $4,380 before a volatile pullback late on Friday, while Brent extended its downtrend to the low $60s and bitcoin slid toward $104,000 amid heavy liquidations. The euro held its recent rebound as the dollar eased, but direction will hinge on incoming U.S. rhetoric and any follow-through in energy and crypto. Volatility risks remain elevated across majors and commodities during 20–24 October.
EUR/USD
The pair finished last week near 1.1650 after rebounding from the mid-1.15s (ECB reference rate on 17 Oct: 1.1681). The 1.1630–1.1660 area is first support to watch early in the week. A sustained move higher would target 1.1710–1.1755, then 1.1810. A break back below 1.1600 could reopen 1.1550–1.1525, with risk to 1.1400 on a clean downside extension. Price action into 1.1630 is pivotal for the bullish structure that formed in mid-October.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin whipsawed after the tariff headlines, with a flush toward $104,000 on Friday as leveraged longs were forced out. Lows were recorded around $103.5k on Friday. Immediate resistance is layered at 112,000–116,000, then 120,000. Supports sit at 110,000, 107,000 and 104,000, with 100,000–98,000 the next demand band if pressure resumes. Despite the pullback, year-to-date ETF inflows and high dominance keep the longer-term uptrend intact, although near-term flows remain sensitive to risk sentiment and U.S. policy signals.
Brent
Brent closed the week around $61.2/bbl and retains a bearish bias while below the 64.80–65.00 supply zone that flipped from support earlier in October. Bulls need to reclaim that band to stabilise the outlook. A daily close under 61.00 would expose 58.00 and potentially 53.50 in extension. Any easing in tariff rhetoric or signs of improving demand could spark short-covering, yet the trend stays fragile at the start of Q4’s penultimate stretch.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Spot gold set an all-time high near $4,380 last week before fading to the low $4,200s into the close. The uptrend remains intact while above 4,000–4,080, with resistance back at 4,240–4,300 and the record area near 4,380. Overbought readings argue for periods of consolidation or a dip to 3,890–3,900 if the dollar bounces, yet macro drivers and central-bank demand continue to underpin the medium-term bullish case.
Conclusion
The new week opens with gold consolidating after record highs, Brent struggling to base, bitcoin attempting to rebuild above the 104,000–110,000 area, and EUR/USD defending the mid-1.16s. Traders should expect headline-driven swings and respect nearby technical levels, particularly around 1.1630 in EUR/USD, 61.00 in Brent, 4,000 in gold, and 110,000 in bitcoin.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
