The week of July 6–10 was dominated by a sharp US–Iran escalation: after fresh American strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation against US bases, President Trump declared the ceasefire “effectively over,” though technical talks reportedly continued and the US Treasury revoked its waiver on Iranian oil sales effective July 17. Brent jumped to five-week highs before easing, the dollar drew safe-haven demand, gold and silver slipped despite the conflict, and Bitcoin and Ethereum extended their rebound on a second straight week of ETF inflows. Markets now turn to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first semiannual congressional testimony and June CPI/PPI.
Closing prices, Friday, July 10, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1414 | Brent Crude – $76.01 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,113.70 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $60.17 | Bitcoin – $63,019 | Ethereum – $1,795
Key calendar, July 13–17: Monday – light calendar, focus on US–Iran diplomacy and Hormuz shipping. Tuesday – Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee; Eurozone Industrial Production. Wednesday – US June CPI; Warsh testifies before the Senate Banking Committee (Semiannual Monetary Policy Report); EIA Crude Inventories. Thursday – US June PPI; Fed Beige Book; Initial Jobless Claims; Philadelphia Fed Index. Friday – University of Michigan Sentiment and Inflation Expectations; ongoing US–Iran developments remain the key unscheduled catalyst.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1414 (prev. week 1.1437; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2081; daily rating: Neutral). The pair drifted lower, unable to hold Monday’s bounce as renewed US–Iran hostilities revived dollar safe-haven demand even as oil-driven inflation fears lifted ECB tightening bets – ECB’s Stournaras said the bank is “back to square one” on inflation, with over 30bp of further ECB tightening now priced in.
Wednesday’s Warsh testimony and June CPI are pivotal: a hawkish tone with a hot CPI opens a retest of 1.1325; a softer print favors a recovery toward 1.1470–1.1550.
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1550, 1.1650 │ Support: 1.1370, 1.1325 (52-week low), 1.1280
Baseline view: cautiously bearish while Iran-driven safe-haven flows and hawkish Fed rhetoric dominate. Base case: 1.1325–1.1550.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $76.01 (prev. week $72.12; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily/weekly: Buy, monthly: Neutral). Brent surged as much as 6% intraweek to $78 after US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, before easing as Washington and Tehran signalled talks would continue. The Treasury’s waiver on Iranian oil sales expires July 17, adding fresh supply risk, while the IEA warned a prolonged conflict could delay rebuilding global inventories.
With the sanctions waiver expiring mid-week and diplomacy fragile, the bias leans bullish; further escalation opens $78–82, a durable de-escalation reopens $70–72.
Resistance: $78.00, $80.00, $82.00 │ Support: $73.50, $70.00, $68.50
Baseline view: cautiously bullish while the Iran conflict and expiring waiver keep a war premium in place. Base case: $70–$80.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,113.70 (prev. week $4,187.30; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily: Sell, weekly: Neutral, monthly: Buy). Gold slipped over 1.5% on the week, failing to draw a safe-haven bid from the Iran escalation as rising oil instead fanned inflation fears and hawkish Fed repricing – markets now assign nearly 80% odds to at least one hike this year. Goldman Sachs trimmed its gold forecast, citing Warsh’s “surprisingly hawkish” turn.
Wednesday’s CPI and the Warsh testimony are the key swing factors: a hawkish reception extends the slide toward $4,000–4,060; a softer surprise favors a bounce to $4,250–4,350.
Resistance: $4,160, $4,250, $4,350 │ Support: $4,060, $4,000, $3,960
Baseline view: cautiously bearish as hawkish Fed repricing outweighs geopolitical demand. Base case: $4,000–$4,250.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $60.17 (prev. week $63.06; 52-week range $35.28–$121.67; daily: Sell, monthly: Buy). Silver fell around 5% on the week as hawkish Fed repricing overshadowed any safe-haven bid from the Iran conflict. The gold/silver ratio widened back toward 68–69 from about 66 the prior week, underscoring silver’s relative underperformance.
CPI and Warsh’s testimony remain the dominant catalysts: a confirmed hawkish shift risks $55–57; a softer print could fuel a bounce toward $63–65.
Resistance: $63.00, $65.00, $68.00 │ Support: $57.00, $55.00, $52.00
Baseline view: cautiously bearish after a sharp weekly decline. Base case: $55–$63.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Closed near $63,019 (prev. week $62,150; 52-week range ~$57,700–$126,200; daily: Buy). Bitcoin extended its rebound for a second straight week as US spot ETFs booked further net inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, following June’s record $4.5bn in outflows (2026 flows still net negative, roughly $5.4bn). Bitcoin has largely shrugged off the Iran escalation, while corporate holders such as Strategy and Empery Digital kept trimming BTC treasuries. The Fear & Greed Index remains in “Extreme Fear” despite the price recovery, and the stalled CLARITY Act remains the key regulatory swing factor.
A weekly close above $64,000 opens $65,000–68,000; a loss of $62,000 reopens $60,000 and $57,700. Warsh’s testimony – given his disclosed personal Bitcoin holdings – is a wildcard event risk.
Resistance: $64,000, $65,000, $68,000 │ Support: $62,000, $60,000, $57,700 (recent low)
Baseline view: cautiously bullish as ETF inflows extend into a third week. Base case: $60,000–$68,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Closed near $1,795 (prev. week $1,746; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily: Buy). ETH gained around 3% on the week, testing the $1,800–1,804 zone where the Supertrend line and 50-day EMA have capped every bounce since June’s selloff. The move tracked Bitcoin’s ETF-driven strength, even as the Ethereum Foundation’s restructuring (a 20% staff cut, 40% budget reduction) weighs on sentiment; Vitalik Buterin’s new “Lean Ethereum” roadmap offered a longer-term positive narrative.
A confirmed close above $1,804 opens $1,900–2,000; a reversal below $1,650 reopens $1,547–1,500. Warsh’s testimony is again the main event risk.
Resistance: $1,804, $1,900, $2,000 │ Support: $1,650, $1,600, $1,500
Baseline view: cautiously bullish while ETH holds above its 50-day EMA. Base case: $1,600–$1,900.
Conclusion
The week opens with markets digesting the US–Iran escalation and bracing for Fed Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony (July 14–15) alongside June CPI/PPI – the central catalysts across asset classes. EUR/USD at 1.1414: a hawkish Warsh/hot CPI combination favors 1.1325–1.1370. Brent at $76.01: the expiring Iran waiver keeps the bias bullish toward $78–80. Gold at $4,113.70: base case $4,000–$4,250. Silver at $60.17: base case $55–$63. Bitcoin at $63,019: a third week of ETF inflows keeps $65,000–68,000 in view. Ethereum at $1,795: a confirmed close above $1,804 would be its first since June’s selloff.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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